🔗 Share this article

China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.